nathan sproul

The Right Side of History — Politically and Morally

When a political party loses an election, either it learns and adapts or it bristles and digs into a trench of electoral failure.

After the Democrats lost their third straight landslide in 1988, they got smart and elected an Arkansas Democrat who broke through the GOP’s southern grip.

In 2000, the Bush campaign realized the Republican Party looked white and cranky. It seems like ancient history before 9/11 and Iraq and Afghanistan but Bush ran as a compassionate conservative.

Remember when he said that our failing schools, especially in the inner-city, suffered from “the soft bigotry of low expectations.”

He was right politically and morally. It’s time for the GOP to be right politically and morally again. This time the issue is immigration reform.

My second greatest regret about the Bush presidency (after the decision to invade Iraq) is that he didn’t start his second term with immigration reform. Presidents need the wisdom to understand what issues are their issues and which issues should be left to successors. We weren’t ready for social security reform but we were ready for immigration reform.

By the time Bush got to immigration reform, it was too late. In 2007, the GOP had been crushed in the previous election. The GOP lost the House and Senate. The levers of power no longer worked as smoothly as 2005.

Even with Ted Kennedy’s support, the GOP needed Harry Reid to pass the legislation. Reid wasn’t about to give the GOP that triumph. So it died an ignominious death. Immigration reform’s champions like Kyl, McCain, Flake and Shadegg were bloodied and bruised.

The political message was that immigration reform was the new third rail of politics for Republicans. Touch it at your own peril.

Since then the handful of brave Republicans who publicly supported comprehensive immigration reform were loudly accused of amnesty and treason. The business leaders who advocated for a humane policy were boycotted and accused of putting “profit before patriotism.”

The entire conversation devolved into a hyperbolic convulsion of who can be tougher on the issue.

In Arizona, Russell Pearce built what seemed like an impenetrable wall around the Republican Party that demanded strict adherence to his immigration orthodoxy. In truth, this orthodoxy was re-packaged John Birch Society rhetoric from the 60’s with the bright shiny bow of border security tied around it.

“Close our borders.”

“We are being infiltrated.”

“National Sovereignty.”

Straw men arguments were fabricated to enforce ideological purity. The problem with straw men is simple. Sometimes they work short-term but soon enough voters figure it out and the proponents of weak arguments come crashing down in defeat.

Russell Pearce has now lost two straight elections. Joe Arpaio only got 52% of the vote in a county that Romney won decisively.

Demographics are rapidly moving against the GOP on this issue. Romney only received 21% of the Latino vote.

That is catastrophic. If it continues, the GOP will join the trash bin of history along with the Whig party.

Some Arizona Republicans have looked like George Wallace standing in front of the school door when it comes to this generation’s civil rights struggle.The good news is the GOP can change.

It must change.

It must get on the right side of history.

I know many first and second generation Latinos. Not one of them came to this country to create a “new” Mexico within our borders. Not one of them came here to break our laws or hurt our country.

They came here because they want to be part of the greatest experiment in human history – a representative democracy. They believe America is a “shining city on a hill.” They left tyranny and poverty. In many cases they risked their lives crossing a scorching desert to make a better life for themselves and their children.

We are a land of immigrants. The opportunity of America isn’t confined to those here now. We must create comprehensive reform that affords the American dream to far more than currently have the chance. By so doing, we will embrace the patch they will place on the American quilt.

Dramatically reforming our immigration laws is this generation’s civil rights struggle.

Dramatically changing conservative rhetoric about the issue is this Republican generation’s moral and political calling.

Deserved Applause

Rarely do political staff or consultants get public praise when their campaigns succeed. They are kind of like umpires. Blame gets heaped on them for failure (the blown call for the umpire). But, when things go well, others get the credit.

Political operatives live by the old saying, “victory has a thousand fathers but defeat dies an orphan.”

Jeff Flake is likely to win a seat in the U.S. Senate when Arizona’s ballots are counted on Tuesday. As someone who knew Flake before he was elected to office, I can tell you that apart from his wife, Cheryl, nobody is more responsible for his electoral success than Steve Voeller.

Voeller was the architect of the first Flake Congressional win in 2000 and has been by his side every election since.

If Flake is victorious on Tuesday, he will win the most difficult Senate campaign this state has ever witnessed. Flake overcame a primary opponent with seemingly endless personal wealth.

Then, because of Arizona’s ill-planned primary calendar that has voters casting ballots for the general election just a few weeks after the primary is completed, Flake’s campaign had to immediately pivot against the strongest candidate the Democrats could have fielded.

Steering the Flake ship through all that has been Steve Voeller as chief strategist and Sarah Morgan as campaign manager. Morgan has been an invaluable addition to Team Flake in 2011, but Voeller has been there from the beginning.

In all the years I’ve known Voeller, I’ve never seen him jump in front of a camera or mug for an interview. If he tells you something, you can take it to the bank as the honest truth. Unfortunately, in the professional world of politics, honesty and modesty are in short supply.

Come to think of it, Steve Voeller sounds a lot like Jeff Flake – honest and modest. Maybe that’s why they work so well together as a team.

For the good of Arizona, I’m hoping that team sticks together for another three decades or so.

…And Early Voting

A few days ago I wrote a post about the three things each of the presidential campaigns should fear going into the home stretch. For the Obama campaign, I listed polling, momentum and Independents.

Post hurricane Sandy and with reams of more data coming in, I’d like to add another  troubling category for Obama’s campaign.

Early Voting!

Both Gallup and Pew have now released polling data on early voters. They are remarkably similar in their assessments. Approximately 19% of the nation has already voted, and according to both Gallup and Pew there is a 7% advantage to Romney among early voters.

In fairness, the sample size is less than 20% of the either poll. However, consider this. In 2008 at a similar point in the campaign, Pew had Obama winning early voters by a 53-34 margin. To any reasonable observer, that was an insurmountable lead for Senator McCain to overcome. In the Pew poll, there is a 26% erosion of Obama early voters from 2008 to 2012.

That is monumental!

The polling which favors Obama is all predicated on Democrats holding roughly the same advantage they held in 2008. There is not one shred of objective evidence that indicates anything remotely close to those partisan advantages in 2012.

Not one!

Colorado is a good example to prove my point. The state voted strongly for Obama and he won it by almost 10%. So far, over 1.1 million people have ALREADY voted in Colorado. Out of those voters, 439,269 are Republican and 404,870 are Democrats and 295,177 are unaffiliated or Independent voters.

Now, let’s assume that both Romney and Obama get 90% of their party to vote for them. And, let’s also assume that Obama and Romney split the Independents 50/50. If those assumptions are accurate, Romney will have won the early votes already cast in Colorado 51.2% to 48.8%.

At the risk of sounding like I’m selling Ginsu knives, but wait, that’s not all…

According to Scott Rasmussen’s most recent survey, Romney is actually winning Independents by 8%. So, if we reconfigure the calculator a bit and give Romney an 8 point win in that category, he has now won early votes already cast in Colorado 52.24% to Obama’s 47.76%.

It must have been great fun to work at Obama HQ in 2008 when early vote numbers rolled in every day proclaiming Obama the next President of the United States. In 2012, those same early vote numbers are the canary in the coal mine. The campaigns both see where this is going.

Advantage: Romney.

Top Ten Things Said By A Losing Obama Campaign

10.  We don’t even pay attention to the national polls.

9.  The crowds may be smaller than 4 years ago but they sure are enthusiastic.

8.  We have 7,000 field offices nationwide and 364 just in Cleveland. (Exaggeration here but you get the point.)

7.  We always knew it would be a close race.

6.  If you had told us a year ago that our average in the polls would be 47% on Oct 30th, we would have been ecstatic.

5.  But we are winning early voters. Sure most of our early voters are high-propensity (meaning they always vote anyway), but we are locking them up now and not taking any chances.

4.  Gallup is the worst pollster in the country.

3.  Debates have never mattered in a Presidential election before.

2.  But Ohio is our firewall.

And finally, when you actually hear someone in the Obama campaign say this, you will know they have lost…

1.  The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day!

What Is Keeping The Campaigns Awake?

What is keeping Obama and Romney’s campaign managers awake at night? Well, they are probably working 23 hours a day so sleep is in short demand. But, I was asking the question rhetorically. What do they worry about with eight days left?

As I see it, they both have three things to worry about.

Romney’s Three Fears:  Ohio, Ohio & Ohio.

Let’s face reality. There has been only one poll in Ohio that gives Romney the lead and that just came out today. Do I think some of the local pollsters are weighting too heavy for Democrats? Yes, but reality is what reality is. Only one poll out of approximately 16 million (exaggeration intended) has put Romney ahead. That’s a problem.

My guess is that Ohio has always been the firewall for Obama. Its demographics are the least suited to Romney of any swing state. Without Ohio, the road to the White House is much more difficult for Romney, if not impossible.

Obama’s Three Fears:  National polling, Mittmentum and Independents.

Polling: All the national polling shows tremendous movement for Romney since the first debate. My best guess is that he is up 2% – 4% nationally. It is almost impossible for a candidate to win the national vote by 2% – 4% and actually lose the Electoral College. A win that big usually portends bigger things everywhere.

Frankly, the 47% issue is a huge problem for Obama. No, I’m not talking about the video of Romney discussing the 47%. I’m talking about how many national polls show him at 47%. It is almost impossible for an incumbent President to win with 47% of the vote so late in the contest. At this point in 2004, Bush was 49.5% and barely cracked 51% on Election Day.

An incumbent President’s job approval number is the most likely indicator of his overall all vote number. With the advent of early voting in 2012, this will fluctuate more than normal. But as of today, among swing state voters, Rasmussen places Obama’s job approval at 48%. That means, Obama is closer to 48% of the vote than the magical 50%+1 needed for victory.

Mittmentum: I would much rather be a point or two behind and have momentum than the other way around. Nobody can deny which campaign feels the momentum and which doesn’t. Momentum is the reason Dick Morris and others are predicting 300+ electoral votes. That seems a little bold for my taste, but I sure hope he’s right.

Independents: The last issue for Obama to legitimately fear is the Independent vote. In just about every swing state and national poll, Romney’s lead among Independents is double digits.

Never in my lifetime has a candidate won Independents by that much and lost the election.

Never!

And, the more terrifying aspect for Obama is that the few remaining undecided voters at this point, are almost certainly independents.

So, where do I think this race is today?

For Obama to win, two things must occur that have never happened. First, Gallup has never had a candidate for President over 50% in late October lose the election.

Never!

Second, in order for Obama to win, either Independents come back to him or he wins the Presidency while losing Independents by the largest margin of any successful candidate.

Romney, on the other hand, either has to break through in Ohio or cobble together a coalition of Wisconsin and somewhere else. Not easy but not as history-defying as Obama’s task.

As of today, I’d rather be Romney. I just hope I still feel that way November 7^th.

A Moment Of Bipartisanship

It isn’t easy during a Presidential election to find an event that brings a genuine spirit of bipartisanship to the forefront. Maybe its an indictment against our society when it actually takes the death of a great man to bring about a temporary reprieve of the incivility called 21^st century American politics.

George McGovern died yesterday at the age of 90.

I must confess that I didn’t know much about McGovern. I knew he was a Senator from South Dakota. I knew he lost in a Mondale/Carter type landslide to Richard Nixon.

Beyond that, not much else.

In watching the television eulogies to him yesterday, I was struck by what a good husband and father he was. But, sadly to say, my cynical side assumes everyone looks better after death than during life.

Then, I heard something about McGovern I didn’t know. He flew 35 missions as a B-24 bomber pilot over Europe during World War II.

35!

Let’s put that in perspective. The job of a bomber crew was so perilous the U.S.  allowed the men to go home after 25 missions.

25!

George McGovern climbed in the cockpit 10 more times after he could have gone home.  He was almost killed in one mission and crash-landed on another.

I can almost picture him on mission 31 receiving heavy damage to his plane — bullets whistling by his head. I can almost picture him thinking to himself, “why didn’t I go home 6 missions ago.” Then, and maybe I am romanticizing this part, I picture him thinking about future generations building their businesses, raising their families, and voting for their leaders.

35 times!

Truly, it’s sad that it takes the death of an American hero to bring about bipartisanship. Sure, I disagreed with his politics. But, American heroism isn’t about politics. It’s about the unique American spirit that continues to motivate our bravest.

Godspeed Senator McGovern.

Romney Could Get 99% Of The Vote — In Israel

Why do I have the suspicion Mitt Romney would win with 99% of the vote in Israel? Oh, that’s right…because he would!

The Democrats crowed when they showed the video image of President Bush standing in front of the “Mission Accomplished” sign.

While Obama didn’t stand in front of a banner saying “I apologize” while giving his now infamous Cairo speech in 2009, the apology speech could very well make him look like the Neville Chamberlain of our time.

Obama naively came into the White House with the belief that radical Islamists hate us and seek our death because we’ve been a colonial power, which has subjected them. If we could just signal a different feeling toward these radicals, they will be nice to us and change their ways.

It is a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of a radical Islamists. They believe there are two types of people in the world. The first and only acceptable type is someone who agrees with their radical beliefs in total.

The second type of person doesn’t agree with them and those people should be killed.

It is that misunderstanding which leads us to the disastrous events of September 11, 2012.

On 9/11, Obama turns down a request to meet with our staunchest ally, Israel, because he won’t have time.  Later, we find out that radical Islamists stormed our Egyptian and Libyan embassy and murdered our Libyan Ambassador.

The irony is tragic.

Our flag was torn in half on our embassy wall on 9/11. Coincidence? No. Disgusting? Yes!

Obama has failed this country’s economy and job growth. Now, we see in the starkest terms possible that his foreign policy will reap disastrous consequences for us as well.

All of this brings me back to my first thought. Romney would win the Israeli vote with 99%…

Israel knows what its like to be the Egyptian and Libyan Embassy.

Israel is an island, just like our embassies were.  Radical Islamists whose only fantasy is the destruction of the state of Israel surround them on all sides.

All they ask from President Obama is that he makes it clear they are our allies and the radical Islamists are our enemy. Obama refuses. Oh sure, he will talk nice about Israel but there is no clarity about his position.

The mothers and fathers of Israel have images seared into their memories of their children being murdered, just like our Ambassador to Libya.

Great Britain was the first line of defense against the Nazis in 1940. So Israel is the first line of defense against radical Islam of 2012.

It isn’t a war we have chosen. But we’d better be prepared to fight it. We need a President with the moral clarity to understand the stakes.

Unlike President Franklin Roosevelt, Obama still thinks that apologizing enough will stem the hatred. He lacks the moral wisdom to recognize evil.

If I lived in Israel, I would be on my knees praying for Mitt Romney’s victory.

Unfortunately for them, they will likely experience the consequences of a second term for Obama before we do.

Yep, I’m pretty sure that if our election was held in Israel, Romney would get 99% of the vote.

Obama’s 1944 Convention Speech

Delegates to the Democratic National Convention and my fellow Americans, I stand before you today and accept your nomination for President of the United States.

Our country faces perhaps its greatest challenge. To our west, the Empire of Japan is quickly encroaching upon our shores. Hawaii, the place of my birth, has been under their control for three years.

To the east, Germany has defeated Great Britain, controls the shipping lanes in the Atlantic, and has conquered Cuba, Mexico and Latin America.

That is our current situation. But, before you cast your vote for President, I hope you consider how we got ourselves in this mess. The other Party and candidate will tell you that we’ve had 3½ years to fix it so you should vote me out and put him in.

What they forget to tell you is that it was their failed policies before I became President, and their obstructionist tactics once I got here, that have created these difficult times.

They are the ones who drove us into this ditch and now they are asking for the keys back to get us out? (Note to BO: Be really sarcastic and exasperated when you ask the question.)

Oh sure, some of our critics will say we should have started the Lend/Lease act as soon as I was elected because we needed Great Britain to have the military equipment to fight the war.

Do you really think anyone knew how bad the war was going to be? (Note to BO: Pained look on your face when you ask this rhetorical question.)

Of course not.

This administration did the only responsible thing we could do. We met with the leaders of Japan, Italy and Germany. They asked us not to do the Lend/Lease Act because it could damage our relationship going forward.

And, after all, World War I was made much worse because America was far too aggressive.

I expressed remorse that we had behaved like a colonial power over the years. After all, why should we try to force others to be like America?

Every reasonable-minded American knows that my diplomacy would have worked if it wasn’t for the Republicans in Congress.

They were the ones who sounded the alarms of War. The Republicans threatened and made Tojo, Hitler and Mussolini think we were about to invade. The Republicans called for building our military at the exact wrong moment.

They wanted more aircraft carriers to defend the Pacific. Think how that must have made Japan feel.

They wanted more bombers for the European theatre. Think how that made Germany and Italy feel.

In one last valiant effort of diplomacy, I told Hitler and Mussolini that I could be more “flexible” in my second term.

But, by then, it was too late. The Republicans had scared them so much that they had no choice but to attack us.

The Republicans created this mess. They drove us in the ditch. It’s their fault.

I’m not happy with where we are but we just haven’t had enough time to fix it. Give me four more years and I will try to do better.

Good night and may God (Note to BO: God was originally taken out of the Democratic platform but we got it put back in last night so you can say it.) bless what’s left of America.

Note To Reader: WW II was won in less than four years.

Follow me on Twitter @nathansproul

My Week At The GOP Convention

I really have one singular thought after spending the past week at the GOP National Convention in Tampa: This is the most important election in my lifetime.

I know that sounds like the typical pabulum spewed by political hacks and campaign operatives. The difference this year is pretty simple. In those status quo elections, the American people were smart enough to see through the hyperbole. This time, the American people are smart enough to recognize the truth of the statement.

You can feel the energy everywhere. My proof? Consider these three examples.

1) The movie 2016 was third in the nation at the box office last week.

2) Scott Rasmussen, a noted pollster, just released a statement saying that GOP voter registration nationwide is at a record level he has never seen before.

3) In the big-problem-for-Obama-state of Iowa, Republicans have added Republicans have added 36,838 new voters while Democrats have lost 76,515 voters since 2008.

Energy and enthusiasm are the anecdotal evidences of an electorate that gets the urgency of 2012. We are clearly at a crossroads. Americans will either decide to be like every other mediocre country in Europe or we will decide to re-claim the mantle of exceptionalism and not apologize for being a “city on a hill.”

For the first time in modern polling, a majority of parents believe their child’s life in America will be worse and more difficult than their life was.

That is a sobering thought.

The American dream isn’t about owning a home or going to college or buying a fancy car. The American dream is about giving your children a better life than you had.

These are the stakes and the American voters are getting it.

We will either decide to be a great country or a mediocre country.

Amazingly, I don’t have to attach Party labels to that statement because we all know which Party believes in American greatness and which Party believes America is like any other country.

Follow Nathan Sproul on Twitter @nathansproul

Oh The Irony

My mother frequently says, “Be careful what you ask for. You might actually get it.” The Democrats on the “Independent” Redistricting Commission should have listened to her. If they had, they might have done some things differently and avoided the ultimate of ironies.

In my opinion, their partisan gamesmanship had one goal when it came to drawing congressional districts – create a downtown Phoenix district that would allow a white Democrat to get elected. Every other district became subservient to this goal.

And, to the Democrats delight, they drew a district that looks competitive on paper but favors the election of a white Democrat. Because of this, the Democrats have fielded a couple of strong white candidates – Kyrsten Sinema and Andrei Cherny.

Whoever emerges from the Primary will give Republicans everything they can handle.

So far, so good for the Democrats, right?

The news, seemingly, got better this week for Democrats when Steve Moak, a wealthy businessman from Paradise Valley, announced that he wouldn’t run for the seat. Moak’s financial resources would have made him the favorite on the GOP side.

The remaining list of GOP candidates is long so I will condense it for you, because I know you can’t wait to read the ultimate irony of the race.

Don Stapley is almost certain to run. While his name is golden in Mesa, this seems too far west for him. Ironically, the district ends at Stapley Road.

Hugh Hallman and Sal DiCiccio may yet get in now that Moak has gotten out of the race. DiCiccio has emphatically denied an interest in running and people are beginning to believe him. Hallman is aggressively talking to supporters and has promised a decision within weeks.

If, Hallman enters the race, he will be the new favorite on the GOP side. However, if he chooses not to enter the race, he and DiCiccio will be the two most coveted endorsements in the race.

That brings me to my friend Vernon Parker who may be the best retail politician I’ve ever seen. He seems to know everyone and they seem to know him. He would have thrived in small town politics 50 years ago where the politicking got done in a barber’s chair or the front porch of the local café. He is a natural at it.

In fact, he is so good at it that he came within a few thousand votes of beating the Quayle name and a 4-1 funding disparity in District 3 two years ago. This time there is no Quayle or Moak. There is no big name or big checkbook.

In my opinion, Parker is the early favorite in the primary and the Democrats’ worst fear. A black Republican winning what was supposed to be a white Democrat’s district. Oh, the irony of it all.